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Thursday, November 4, 2010

Previous of Canada's Job Report - Looks like we're up by 15,000 new jobs

Here is a preview from Routers on StatsCan's monthly job report for the month of October and while the growth is seen as slowing, it is still certainly growing. Factoring in an additional 15,000 jobs to bring us back to the pre-recession levels is a positive sign all around.

 WHAT: Canadian October employment report
 WHEN: Friday, Nov 5 at 7 a.m. (1100 GMT)
                    Sept      F'cast range    prior (Aug) 
 Jobs gain/loss     +15K      +5K to +28K    -6.6K  
 Unemployment rate   8.0 pct   7.9-8.1 pct    8.0 pct
 For individual forecasts see: [ID:nECICA]
 Slowing pace of growth: Employment has returned to
pre-recession levels but the pace of job creation has slowed
compared with late 2009 and earlier this year. Economists
expect to see more modest labor data in coming months. The
unemployment rate is seen staying stubbornly high as more
people enter the market in search of work, a trend reflected in
a recent report showing consumer confidence on the rise.
 The economy lost jobs in two of the last three months. That
is consistent with the Bank of Canada's view that consumer
spending will be more subdued in coming months, after helping
fuel the fast-paced early stages of the recovery.
 Types of jobs: Beneath the headline numbers, markets are
watching for signs of weakness or strength in the underlying
details on part-time versus full-time positions, public sector
or private sector, and whether jobs are created in high-paying
industries or in low-quality ones like retail.
 Over the past year, part-time job growth has far surpassed
that of full-time work and private-sector employers have lagged
governments in hiring.
 Wages: Wages are on the rise, according to the latest data
for weekly earnings in August. The Bank of Canada closely
watches average hourly wages of permanent employees for any
sign of inflationary pressures. Upward pressure on wages could
make it harder for the central bank to keep its key interest
rate on hold in an environment of very low rates and a
relatively resilient domestic economy that contrasts with the
fragility of the U.S. economy.
 Stronger-than-forecast jobs growth would ease concerns of
slower growth, and support the Canadian dollar, which will also
be sensitive if the U.S. Federal Reserve further eases monetary
policy this week as expected.
 An unexpectedly large decline in hiring would likely
prevent the currency from rising further and support bond
prices as the prospect of another rate hike is pushed further
into the future.
 All of Canada's primary securities dealers forecast the
central bank will stand pat on rates on Dec. 7, according to a
Reuters survey on Oct. 19. Two expected the bank to raise rates
as soon as January but seven said the key rate would still be
at the current 1 percent after March 1. [CA/POLL]
 Markets are pricing in a 95 percent chance of steady rates
in December and almost no chance of a rate hike until the
second half of next year, according to a Reuters calculation of
yields on overnight index swaps. BOCWATCH
(Reporting by Louise Egan; editing by Peter Galloway)

As Seen At http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN019334720101101

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